The idea of splitting Iraq into three separate states–Sunni, Shia and Kurds, is an ideal solution if all the demographic, political, and environmental factors going on inside the nation were in harmony with such a split. But they are not. First of all, there are many more Shia than there are Sunnis and Kurds. Next, the oil is not geographically distributed along the same distribution pattern as the population. Next, there are political forces that militate against a peaceful federation of separate states. Iran does not want Iraq to settle down . Al Qaeda wants a haven from which to launch attacks against the West. They would certainly interfere with any such peaceful alignment,as would Iran. Such interference would continue to result in sectarian violence that would prevent such a neat and tidy solution to the settlement of Iraq.
For there to be something like a peaceful confederation of states, such as the EU, there must be internal security first. There must be a balance of power. There must be cultural cohesiveness between the states. The individual states must have independent means of economic survival, and comparative economic advantages under their individual control. These do not exist.
While the split suggested is an alternative to the present situation, and for that reason alone may sound appealing, it is the opinion that for the reasons mentioned that a federation of separate states would not be feasible under the prevailing circumstances.